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Objective
To create a nomogram-based model to estimate the Chinese population's 5-year risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).
Methods
We randomly divided 7582 participants into two groups in a 7:3 ratio: one group was assigned to work with the training set, which consisted of 5307 cases, and the other group was assigned to validate the model using 2275 cases. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model was employed to ascertain the variables with the highest correlation among all potential variables. A logistic model was constructed by incorporating these selected variables, which were subsequently visualized using a nomogram. The discriminatory ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results
During the 5-year follow-up, 1034 (13.64%) total participants were newly diagnosed with MASLD. Using eight variables (gender, body mass index, waist, hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, uric acid, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein), we built a 5-year MASLD risk prediction model. The nomogram showed an area under the ROC of 0.795 (95% CI: 0.779–0.811) in the training set and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.760–0.810) in the validation set. The calibration curves revealed a 5-year period of agreement between the observed and predicted MASLD risks. DCA curves illustrated the practicality of this nomogram over threshold probability profiles ranging from 5% to 50%.
Conclusion
We created and tested a nomogram to forecast the risk of MASLD prevalence over the next 5 years.
Developmental Endocrinology Research Group, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Institute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
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Centre for Endocrinology, William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London Medical School, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
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Department of Endocrinology, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Hammersmith Hospital, London, UK
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Department of Paediatric Endocrinology, Makarios Children's Hospital, Nicosia, Cyprus
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Sussex Community NHS Trust, Brighton, UK
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Developmental Endocrinology Research Group, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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The University of Dublin, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Republic of Ireland
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D Wakimoto Y Filangieri C Pinkhasov A & Angulo M. Guanfacine extended release for the reduction of aggression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms, and self-injurious behavior in Prader-Willi syndrome-a retrospective cohort
