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Niek F Dirks Atalmedial Diagnostics Centre, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem, The Netherlands
Department of Clinical Chemistry, Hematology and Immunology, Noordwest Ziekenhuis, Alkmaar, The Netherlands

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Etienne Cavalier Department of Clinical Chemistry, University of Liège, CHU de Liège, Liège, Belgium

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Annemieke C Heijboer Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Clinical Chemistry, Endocrine Laboratory, Boelelaan, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Amsterdam Gastroenterology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Department of Clinical Chemistry, Endocrine Laboratory, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Amsterdam Reproduction & Development Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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The measurement of vitamin D metabolites aids in assessing vitamin D status and in diagnosing disorders of calcium homeostasis. Most laboratories measure total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), while others have taken the extra effort to measure 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 separately and additional metabolites such as 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D and 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D. The aim of this review is to provide an updated overview of the main markers of vitamin D metabolism, define the intended measurands, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two most widely used assays, automated assays and liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Whether using the easy and fast automated assays or the more complex LC-MS/MS, one should know the pitfalls of the used technique in order to interpret the measurements. In conclusion, automated assays are unable to accurately measure 25(OH)D in all patient groups, including persons using D2. In these cases, an LC-MS/MS method, when appropriately developed and standardized, produces a more reliable measurement.

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Mateo Amaya-Montoya School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

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Daniela Duarte-Montero School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

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Luz D Nieves-Barreto School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

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Angélica Montaño-Rodríguez School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

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Eddy C Betancourt-Villamizar Team Foods, Bogotá, Colombia

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María P Salazar-Ocampo School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

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Carlos O Mendivil School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia
Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, Section of Endocrinology, Bogotá, Colombia

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Data on dietary calcium and vitamin D intake from Latin America are scarce. We explored the main correlates and dietary sources of calcium and vitamin D in a probabilistic, population-based sample from Colombia. We studied 1554 participants aged 18–75 from five different geographical regions. Dietary intake was assessed by employing a 157-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire and national and international food composition tables. Daily vitamin D intake decreased with increasing age, from 230 IU/day in the 18–39 age group to 184 IU/day in the 60–75 age group (P -trend < 0.001). Vitamin D intake was positively associated with socioeconomic status (SES) (196 IU/day in lowest vs 234 in highest SES, P-trend < 0.001), and with educational level (176 IU/day in lowest vs 226 in highest education level, P-trend < 0.001). Daily calcium intake also decreased with age, from 1376 mg/day in the 18–39 age group to 1120 mg/day in the 60–75 age group (P -trend < 0.001). Calcium intake was lowest among participants with only elementary education, but the absolute difference in calcium intake between extreme education categories was smaller than for vitamin D (1107 vs 1274 mg/day, P-trend = 0.023). Daily calcium intake did not correlate with SES (P -trend = 0.74). Eggs were the main source of overall vitamin D, albeit their contribution decreased with increasing age. Dairy products contributed at least 48% of dietary calcium in all subgroups, mostly from cheese-containing traditional foods. SES and education were the key correlates of vitamin D and calcium intake. These findings may contribute to shape public health interventions in Latin American countries.

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Karolien Van De Maele Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, KidZ Health Castle, UZ Brussel, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

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Jean De Schepper Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, KidZ Health Castle, UZ Brussel, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

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Jesse Vanbesien Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, KidZ Health Castle, UZ Brussel, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

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Monique Van Helvoirt Zeepreventorium, De Haan, Belgium

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Ann De Guchtenaere Zeepreventorium, De Haan, Belgium

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Inge Gies Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, KidZ Health Castle, UZ Brussel, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium

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Background

Vitamin D deficiency is common in obese adolescents and a risk factor for insulin resistance. We investigated if prevailing serum 25-OH vitamin D might predict the body fat loss in a group of obese adolescents undergoing a residential weight loss program.

Methods

In 92 (35 male) obese adolescents (aged 10.6–19 years) undergoing a residential weight loss program in Belgium, fasting serum 25-OH vitamin D (25-OH-D), insulin, glucose and lipid levels were measured and body composition was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA).

Results

Baseline median (range) serum 25-OH-D level was 17.7 µg/L (3.8–41.8). In total, 55 adolescents had a serum 25-OH-D below 20 µg/L. In 31 adolescents with a low baseline 25-OH-D level, median increase in serum 25-OH-D was 2.4 µg/L (−4.2 to 7.2) after 10 months. This resulted in normal 25-OH-D levels in seven adolescents, whereas median BMI decreased with 1.0 SDS and body fat percentage diminished with 9.9%. Obese adolescents with or without a 25-OH-D level below or above 20 µg/L at baseline had similar changes in body weight, BMI SDS, body fat percentage and body fat mass at the end of the program. The change in serum 25-OH-D did not correlate with change in serum insulin, BMI SDS or body fat percentage and body fat mass.

Conclusion

Vitamin D deficiency was present in 55 out of 92 obese adolescents at the start of the summer. Serum 25-OH-D concentration did not predict changes in body fat loss after a residential weight loss program.

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Vito Francic Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Martin Keppel Department of Laboratory Medicine, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg, Austria

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Verena Schwetz Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Christian Trummer Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Marlene Pandis Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Valentin Borzan Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Martin R Grübler Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Nicolas D Verheyen Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Marcus E Kleber Vth Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany

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Graciela Delgado Vth Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany

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Angela P Moissl Vth Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany

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Benjamin Dieplinger Department of Laboratory Medicine, Konventhospital Barmherzige Brueder Linz, Linz, Austria

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Winfried März Vth Department of Medicine (Nephrology, Hypertensiology, Rheumatology, Endocrinology, Diabetology), Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
Synlab Academy, Synlab Holding Germany GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany

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Andreas Tomaschitz Specialist Clinic of Rehabilitation Bad Gleichenberg, Bad Gleichenberg, Austria

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Stefan Pilz Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Barbara Obermayer-Pietsch Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria

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Objective

Cardiovascular disease manifestation and several associated surrogate markers, such as vitamin D, have shown substantial seasonal variation. A promising cardiovascular biomarker, soluble ST2 (sST2), has not been investigated in this regard – we therefore determined if systemic levels of sST2 are affected by seasonality and/or vitamin D in order to investigate their clinical interrelation and usability.

Design

sST2 levels were measured in two cohorts involving hypertensive patients at cardiovascular risk, the Styrian Vitamin D Hypertension Trial (study A; RCT design, 8 weeks 2800 IU cholecalciferol daily) and the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study (LURIC; study B; cross-sectional design).

Methods

The effects of a vitamin D intervention on sST2 levels were determined in study A using ANCOVA, while seasonality of sST2 levels was determined in study B using ANOVA.

Results

The concentrations of sST2 remained unchanged by a vitamin D intervention in study A, with a mean treatment effect (95% confidence interval) of 0.1 (−0.6 to 0.8) ng/mL; P = 0.761), despite a rise in 25(OH)D (11.3 (9.2–13.5) ng/mL; P < 0.001) compared to placebo. In study B, seasonal variations were present in 25(OH)D levels in men and women with or without heart failure (P < 0.001 for all subgroups), while sST2 levels remained unaffected by the seasons in all subgroups.

Conclusions

Our study provides the first evidence that systemic sST2 levels are not interrelated with vitamin D levels or influenced by the seasons in subjects at cardiovascular risk.

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Ying-Lien Cheng Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Ting-I Lee Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Yu-Mei Chien Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Ting-Wei Lee Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Yi-Jen Chen Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Cardiovascular Research Center, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Taipei Heart Institute, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Vitamin D deficiency is associated with hyperlipidemia, but it remains unclear whether vitamin D supplementation reduces serum lipid levels. The aims of this study were to investigate the associations between increased serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations and lipid levels and identify the characteristics of people with or without lipid reduction associated with increased 25(OH)D levels. The medical records of 118 individuals (53 men; mean age, 54.4 ± 10.6 years) whose serum 25(OH)D levels increased between 2 consecutive measurements were retrospectively reviewed. People with increased 25(OH)D levels (from 22.7 (17.6–29.2) to 32.1 (25.6–36.8) mg/dL; P < 0.01) had a significant reduction in serum levels of triglycerides (TGs) (from 111.0 (80–164) to 104.5 (73–142) mg/dL; P < 0.01) and total cholesterol (TC) (from 187.5 (155–213) to 181.0 (150–210) mg/dL; P < 0.05). The individuals who responded to vitamin D (≥10% reduction in TG or TC levels) exhibited significantly higher baseline TG and TC levels than those who did not. Only patients with hyperlipidemia (not those without hyperlipidemia) at baseline exhibited significantly reduced TG and TC levels at follow-up. However, increasing serum 25(OH)D concentrations were significantly correlated with decreasing lipid levels in individuals with baseline 25(OH)D levels less than 30 ng/mL and in individuals aged 50–65 years (not in patients younger than 50 years or older than 65 years). In conclusion, increasing serum 25(OH)D concentrations may be potentially helpful for the treatment of hyperlipidemia in people with vitamin D deficiency.

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A Gizard Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, Besançon University Hospital, Paris, France

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A Rothenbuhler APHP, Department of Pediatric Endocrinology, Bicêtre Paris Sud, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France
Reference Center for Rare Disorders of Calcium and Phosphate Metabolism, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France
Plateforme d’Expertise Paris Sud Maladies Rares and Filière OSCAR, Bicêtre Paris Sud, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France

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Z Pejin APHP, Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, Necker Hospital, Paris, France

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G Finidori APHP, Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, Necker Hospital, Paris, France

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C Glorion APHP, Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, Necker Hospital, Paris, France

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B de Billy Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, Besançon University Hospital, Paris, France

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A Linglart APHP, Department of Pediatric Endocrinology, Bicêtre Paris Sud, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France
Reference Center for Rare Disorders of Calcium and Phosphate Metabolism, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France
Plateforme d’Expertise Paris Sud Maladies Rares and Filière OSCAR, Bicêtre Paris Sud, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France
INSERM U1169, Hôpital Bicêtre, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, et Université Paris-Saclay, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France

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P Wicart Reference Center for Rare Disorders of Calcium and Phosphate Metabolism, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France
APHP, Department of Pediatric Orthopedic Surgery, Necker Hospital, Paris, France

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Background

X-linked hypophosphatemic rickets (XLHR) is due to mutations in PHEX leading to unregulated production of FGF23 and hypophosphatemia. XLHR is characterized by leg bowing of variable severity. Phosphate supplements and oral vitamin analogs, partially or, in some cases, fully restore the limb straightness. Surgery is the alternative for severe or residual limb deformities.

Objective

To retrospectively assess the results of surgical limb correction in XLHR (osteotomies and bone alignment except for 3 transient hemiepiphysiodesis).

Methods

We analyzed the incidence of recurrence and post-surgical complications in 49 XLHR patients (29F, 20M) (mean age at diagnosis 6.0 years (± 7.1)).

Results

At first surgery, the mean age was 13.4 years (± 5.0). Recurrence was observed in 14/49 (29%) patients. The number of additional operations significantly decreased with age (2.0 (± 0.9), 1.7 (± 1.0) and 1.2 (± 0.4) in children <11 years, between 11 and 15, and >15 years; P < 0.001). Incidence of recurrence seemed to be lower in patients with good metabolic control of the rickets (25% vs 33%). Complications were observed in 57% of patients.

Conclusion

We report a large series of surgical procedures in XLHR. Our results confirm that phosphate supplements and vitamin D analog therapy is the first line of treatment to correct leg bowing. Surgery before puberty is associated with a high risk of recurrence of the limb deformity. Such procedures should only be recommended, following multidisciplinary discussions, in patients with severe distortion leading to mechanical joint and ligament complications, or for residual deformities once growth plates have fused.

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Melissa Braga Department of Internal Medicine, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA

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Zena Simmons Department of Health & Life Sciences, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA

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Keith C Norris Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, USA

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Monica G Ferrini Department of Internal Medicine, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA
Department of Health & Life Sciences, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA
Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, USA

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Jorge N Artaza Department of Internal Medicine, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA
Department of Health & Life Sciences, Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, California, USA
Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, USA

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Skeletal muscle wasting is a serious disorder associated with health conditions such as aging, chronic kidney disease and AIDS. Vitamin D is most widely recognized for its regulation of calcium and phosphate homeostasis in relation to bone development and maintenance. Recently, vitamin D supplementation has been shown to improve muscle performance and reduce the risk of falls in vitamin D deficient older adults. However, little is known of the underlying molecular mechanism(s) or the role it plays in myogenic differentiation. We examined the effect of 1,25-D3 on myogenic cell differentiation in skeletal muscle derived stem cells. Primary cultures of skeletal muscle satellite cells were isolated from the tibialis anterior, soleus and gastrocnemius muscles of 8-week-old C57/BL6 male mice and then treated with 1,25-D3. The efficiency of satellite cells isolation determined by PAX7+ cells was 81%, and they expressed VDR. Incubation of satellite cells with 1,25-D3 induces increased expression of: (i) MYOD, (ii) MYOG, (iii) MYC2, (iv) skeletal muscle fast troponin I and T, (v) MYH1, (vi) IGF1 and 2, (vii) FGF1 and 2, (viii) BMP4, (ix) MMP9 and (x) FST. It also promotes myotube formation and decreases the expression of MSTN. In conclusion, 1,25-D3 promoted a robust myogenic effect on satellite cells responsible for the regeneration of muscle after injury or muscle waste. This study provides a mechanistic justification for vitamin D supplementation in conditions characterized by loss of muscle mass and also in vitamin D deficient older adults with reduced muscle mass and strength, and increased risk of falls.

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Laura P B Elbers Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Center Slotervaart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Marije Wijnberge Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Center Slotervaart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Laboratory of Experimental Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Joost C M Meijers Department of Experimental Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of Plasma Proteins, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Dennis C W Poland Clinical Chemistry Laboratory, Medical Center Slotervaart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Dees P M Brandjes Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Center Slotervaart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Eric Fliers Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Victor E A Gerdes Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Center Slotervaart, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Introduction

Abnormal coagulation tests have been observed in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (HPT) suggesting a prothrombotic effect of parathyroid hormone (PTH). Vitamin D deficiency (VIDD) is the most frequent cause of secondary HPT. Aim of our study was to investigate the influence of HPT secondary to moderate-to-severe VIDD and vitamin D replacement on the coagulation and fibrinolysis system.

Subjects and methods

Prospective cohort study of patients with vitamin D <25 nmol/L with and without HPT, and a control group of patients on vitamin D suppletion. At baseline and after 2 months of vitamin D suppletion (900,000 IU in 2 months), endocrine and coagulation markers were measured.

Results

59 patients with VIDD of which 34 had secondary HPT and 36 controls were included. After 2 months of suppletion, vitamin D increased by 399% (VIDD with HPT), 442% (all patients with VIDD) and 6% (controls). PTH decreased by 34% (VIDD with HPT, P < 0.01 for decrease), 32% (all VIDD, P < 0.01) and increased by 8% in the controls (P-values: <0.01 for relative changes between VIDD with HPT or all VIDD patients vs controls). Relative changes in PT, aPTT, fibrinogen, Von Willebrand factor, factors VII, VIII and X, thrombin generation, TAFI, clot-lysis time and d-dimer were not different between patients with VIDD with HPT or all VIDD vs controls.

Discussion

Secondary HPT due to VIDD does not have a prothrombotic effect. In contrast with previous reports, PTH does not seem to influence coagulation or fibrinolysis, which is relevant because of the high prevalence of VIDD.

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Zhen-yu Song Department of Urology, Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China

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Qiuming Yao Department of Endocrinology, Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China

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Zhiyuan Zhuo Department of Urology, Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China

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Zhe Ma Department of Urology, Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China

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Gang Chen Department of Urology, Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China

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Previous studies investigating the association of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D level with prognosis of prostate cancer yielded controversial results. We conducted a dose–response meta-analysis to elucidate the relationship. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for eligible studies up to July 15, 2018. We performed a dose–response meta-analysis using random-effect model to calculate the summary hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI of mortality in patients with prostate cancer. Seven eligible cohort studies with 7808 participants were included. The results indicated that higher vitamin D level could reduce the risk of death among prostate cancer patients. The summary HR of prostate cancer-specific mortality correlated with an increment of every 20 nmol/L in circulating vitamin D level was 0.91, with 95% CI 0.87–0.97, P = 0.002. The HR for all-cause mortality with the increase of 20 nmol/L vitamin D was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84–0.98, P = 0.01). Sensitivity analysis suggested the pooled HRs were stable and not obviously changed by any single study. No evidence of publications bias was observed. This meta-analysis suggested that higher 25-hydroxyvitamin D level was associated with a reduction of mortality in prostate cancer patients and vitamin D is an important protective factor in the progression and prognosis of prostate cancer.

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Malachi J McKenna Metabolism Laboratory, Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, St Vincent's University Hospital, Elm Park, Dublin 4, Ireland
Metabolism Laboratory, Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, St Vincent's University Hospital, Elm Park, Dublin 4, Ireland
Metabolism Laboratory, Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, St Vincent's University Hospital, Elm Park, Dublin 4, Ireland

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Barbara F Murray Metabolism Laboratory, Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, St Vincent's University Hospital, Elm Park, Dublin 4, Ireland

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Myra O'Keane Metabolism Laboratory, Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, St Vincent's University Hospital, Elm Park, Dublin 4, Ireland

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Mark T Kilbane Metabolism Laboratory, Department of Endocrinology, School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, St Vincent's University Hospital, Elm Park, Dublin 4, Ireland

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Background

The Institute of Medicine 2011 Report on Dietary Reference Intakes for Calcium and Vitamin D specified higher intakes for all age groups compared to the 1997 report, but also cautioned against spurious claims about an epidemic of vitamin D deficiency and against advocates of higher intake requirements. Over 40 years, we have noted marked improvement in vitamin D status but we are concerned about hypervitaminosis D.

Objective

We sought to evaluate the 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) trend over 20 years.

Design

We retrieved all results of serum 25OHD from 1993 to 2013 (n=69 012) that was trimmed to one sample per person (n=43 782). We conducted a time series analysis of the monthly averages for 25OHD using a simple sequence chart and a running median smoothing function. We modelled the data using univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and forecast 25OHD levels up to 2016.

Results

The time series sequence chart and smoother function demonstrated a steady upward trend with seasonality. The yearly average 25OHD increased from 36.1 nmol/l in 1993 to 57.3 nmol/l in 2013. The ARIMA model was a good fit for the 25OHD time series; it forecasted monthly average 25OHD up to the end of 2016 with a positive stationary R 2 of 0.377.

Conclusions

Vitamin D status improved over the past 40 years, but there remains a dual problem: there are groups at risk of vitamin D deficiency who need public health preventative measures; on the other hand, random members of the population are taking unnecessarily high vitamin D intakes for unsubstantiated claims.

Open access